Lower Thirds: 
0:05	Report by | Viktorija Terentjeva
0:16	Dmitry Oreshkin | Political Analyst
1:26	 Source: SOTAvision
1:54	Dmitry Oreshkin | Political Analyst

(info: Russia’s war against Ukraine is entering its fifth year, with no political breakthrough in sight. While the fighting in Ukraine continues, the impact on Russia itself is becoming harder to ignore. Prices are rising, growth is slowing - yet Vladimir Putin’s grip on power appears firm. What has the war changed inside Russia - and what hasn’t? Viktorija Terentjeva reports.)

Script: 

Four years into Russia's full-scale war in Ukraine, the fighting grinds on.
And despite on-and-off negotiations, there appears to be little end in sight.

((Ort: Riga))
Dmitry Oreshkin
political analyst
For Putin, continuing the war may be a more preferable option than ending it. Because if he ends it, people wake up and experience a hangover… The war is over, but where are the improvements? And there won’t be any improvements for many reasons.
((21 38 - Лично для Путина продолжение войны может быть более предпочтительной опцией, чем ее окончание. Потому что если он ее оканчивает, люди просыпаются и испытывают похмелье… Война закончилась, а где улучшения?А улучшений не будет по целому ряду причин 21 59))
((streets of Moscow, people))
And while growing numbers of Russians may favor ending the war with Ukraine, analyst Dmitry Oreshkin says public attitudes are still shaped by a deeply rooted political culture - one where people expect major geopolitical decisions to come from the Kremlin. 
((Ort: Riga))
Dmitry Oreshkin
political analyst
Most people understand that negotiations will have to happen on some terms. Those terms must be ours - public opinion is firm about that. What exactly does “our terms” mean? That’s something comrade Putin will explain.
((7 50 Большинство понимает, что придется договариваться на каких-то условиях. Условия должны быть наши, это общественное мнение знает твердо. Что значат “наши условия”? Это товарищ Путин объяснит 08 16))

((Kremlin, Putin in uniform, grocery prices, people))

Any public discontent, if it appears, is likely to be focused on everyday concerns. Not geopolitics.

Wage growth for example has stalled while grocery prices keep climbing.
Ordinary citizens are paying a high price for the Kremlin's military ambitions. 

VOX Weibl

Life has changed, we’ve become destitute, prices are rising, but incomes aren’t increasing - and  I’ve actually lost my job!!  ((01 53 Изменилась жизнь, мы обнищали, цены на все растут, а доходы не увеличиваются - я вообще потеряла работу 02 02))
VOX Mann
Life has certainly become worse compared to previous years… that’s for sure, inflation and all that… ((09 59 - жить конечно стало хуже, по сравнению с теми годами… это точно, инфляция, все дела 10 05))
VOX Weibl
It’s very painful, very! But what can you do - Russia must be defended! 
((02 08 - очень больно, очень больно! Но что поделать - Россию надо отстаивать 2 13)) 

But few think Putin is on the verge of losing power. The system, as it stands, is designed to keep him there. 

((Ort: Riga))
Dmitry Oreshkin
political analyst

Forget about the uprisings - that’s a fairy tale from party textbooks, where the people rise up and overthrow a hated regime. Power changes through splits within the elites.
((15 04 - Про народные восстания можно забыть, это сказка из учебников партии, где народ поднялся и снес ненавистный режим. Власть меняется в процессе раскола элит 15 20))

For now the Russian elites appear to be remaining silent - the price of disloyalty is too high.

((((Moscow shots, streets, people, money)

Meanwhile the West is tightening the screws on the Russian economy. 

In a December 2025 brief,  the US think tank Atlantic Council wrote that while Russia's war-related industries are booming, the rest of the country's economy remained largely stagnant -  and that Moscow had now pushed the limits of how much the civilian economy could be neglected.

((Moscow streets, people, Putin, Kremlin))
The longer the war in Ukraine drags on, the higher the price for Vladimir Putin is - politically and economically. 
+++END