Lower thirds:

00:01 Report by / Chiponda Chimbelu
00:18 Jeff Colgan, Watson Institute for Public and International Affair
01:35 Jeff Colgan, Watson Institute for Public and International Affair
02:16 Justin Dargin, Middle East Council on Global Affairs

Script:

It's a major blow to OPEC, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries…The United Arab Emirates - its third biggest member in terms of oil production - is leaving on May 1 2026. But the initial impact on oil prices is expected to be negligible. 

00:18
+++ SOT Jeff Colgan, Watson Institute for Public and International Affair +++
I wouldn't expect in the short term a major shift in oil prices as a consequence of the UAE lifting. This is more of a long-term signal about the fundamental changes that are happening in the global energy system for multiple reasons, including, of course, the current conflict with Iran. 

00:39
UAE oil exports have been affected by the Iran War...despite the country having an export route that avoids the Strait of Hormuz…

00:48
+++GFX REIN+++
The Abu Dhabi Crude oil pipeline has a daily capacity of 1.5 to 1.8 million barrels…That's more that half its pre-Iran war export capacity. Here's how the Emirates explained its shock announcement to leave OPEC.  

00:59
+++GFX ZITAT REIN+++
This decision reflects the UAE’s long-term strategic and economic vision and evolving energy profile, including accelerated investment in domestic energy production, and reinforces its commitment to a responsible, reliable, and forward-looking role in global energy markets. 

01:15
The UAE was a member of OPEC for nearly six decades…But over the years it has disagreed with its bigger neighbor Saudi Arabia - over production targets. 

01:26
+++ SOT Jeff Colgan, Watson Institute for Public and International Affairs +++
"This was a long time coming in the sense that there was friction between the UAE and Saudi Arabia over a number of issues. And there's no doubt that the war in Iran over the last six weeks, eight weeks now, has probably exacerbated some of those tensions and so that it may be the trigger, but it's probably closer to something like the straw that broke the camel's back."

01:56
And while Emirates departure from OPEC may not affect oil prices in the short-term, analysts say it will change OPEC and the market the oil has shaped for decades.

02:16 
+++ SOT Justin Dargin, Middle East Council on Global Affairs +++
"When the UAE leaves from OPEC, that means the burden of being responsible - of being able to moderate oil prices - lies firmly on Saudi Arabia. So that means it has a type of lone wolf problem. On one hand it has to discipline other OPEC members or OPEC+ members if they cheat on their quotas, and also it leaves the USA being able to produce as much as possible. And there by benefit from trying to expand its market share."

02:38 
And that's a scenario that could also motivate other OPEC and OPEC+ members to leave - and even further weaken Saudi Arabia's ability to control global oil prices. 

END